The end of Orbán?

Hungary

26 Mar

It has been 16 years since Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party assumed power in Hungary – and it might have begun to feel like things could never change. But with a parliamentary election just around the corner, there’s now a glimmer – a hint! a twinkle! – of hope that the EU’s most illiberal government could finally be on its way out.

This week, we’re devoting the entire episode to the April 12 elections: what’s certain, what remains to be seen, and most importantly, what’s at stake. And to make sense of it all, we’re joined by two Budapest-based friends of the podcast: the novelist Krisztián Marton, and Viktória Serdült, reporter at HVG, one of the last surviving bastions of independent journalism in Hungary.

MISS OUR NORMAL PROGRAMMING? This week’s edition of our newsletter, Good Week Bad Week, has you covered. Subscribe over here to learn what’s been going on beyond Hungary’s borders (the good, the bad, the silly).

KATY LEE:
Welcome back to The Europeans. It is a podcast about just one continent on this very, very messy planet of ours, what's happening on that continent, and sometimes how it interacts with other continents. We were away last week, but we're back. How was your break, Dominic?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Well, it didn't feel like much of a break. Unfortunately, I had to sing a lot and I was sick and the combination of those two things is not that fun. But I'm not the only one on the podcast team who's been sick. There's been like a bit of an epidemic of food poisoning on our team, I believe.

KATY LEE:
Yeah, it's spreading via our group chat. How is that possible?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
I don't know. But yeah, someone needs to investigate this. How are you doing?

KATY LEE:
I'm fully recovered from the aforementioned food poisoning. Thank you for asking about the state of my digestive system. And I'm just coming down from the excitement of the local elections here in France. We've got a new mayor here in Paris, which is quite exciting.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Oh, yeah. Tell me about him. What's his deal?

KATY LEE:
His name is Emmanuel Grégoire. He is a socialist like his predecessor. He travelled by bike to his victory speech, which maybe gives you an idea of the kind of image he's trying to present.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Dutch?

KATY LEE:
Dutch, yeah. He's going to be a Dutch mayor for Paris. But it was a really closely fought election campaign. It did look for a minute like we were going to have a rightwing mayor because of the way that the electoral mass worked out. But in the end, people turned out in pretty large numbers to block the right. So we have six more years of centre left leadership of Paris.
And yeah, it feels kind of weird to be excited by continuity. But today I am excited about continuity.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
I guess we can all just be excited about anything that isn't societal collapse. There have actually been a lot of elections over the past week. There were those German regional elections, a big constitutional referendum in Italy that actually went against Prime Minister Meloni's wishes. And there was an election that was way closer than the Parisian election in the end in Slovenia.
Oh, yeah. Did you see this photo finish between former populist Prime Minister Janez Janša and the current centrist Prime Minister Robert Golob, who just pipped Janša to the post. But yeah, we'll have to see what happens with the coalition negotiations there. And actually on the day we're recording on Tuesday, there's a Danish parliamentary election happening, which will be complete by the time you're hearing this.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
How are we meant to keep on top of all of these, Katy?

KATY LEE:
You can't. Just let the elections wash over you.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
It's true. And honestly, sometimes it feels like we could fall into a trap of making this podcast exclusively an elections podcast.

KATY LEE:
Yeah.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
And we don't want to do that. We like to think of The Europeans as being so much more than just a politics podcast.

KATY LEE:
It is.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
That said, this week, it isn't. This week, we've decided to dedicate the entire episode to one upcoming election, because this specific election feels like it has the potential to be monumental, both for the country itself, but also for Europe as a whole.

KATY LEE:
Yes. On April the 12th, parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary. And for the first time in 16 years, there is someone running who looks like they might possibly be able to unseat the Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. A political upstart by the name of Peter Magyar. He's actually a former insider from Orbán's own party, Fidesz. Magyar is leading a rebranded party called Tisza. And he is the person who is looking, if the polls are to be believed at least, like he has a chance of kicking Orbán out of power.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Which is really a huge deal. I mean, I think Orbán might be the prime minister we've talked about the most in the history of this podcast.

KATY LEE:
Ooh, we should do a search of our transcripts to check.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
We should. And it's because of the long line of very controversial and anti-democratic policies that he's passed in his long 16 year reign. So I think we can safely call this the most closely watched election in Europe this year.

KATY LEE:
I mean, don't take it from us, take it from the EU's very own parliament. They have said that Hungary isn't a democracy anymore. If you look at the things he's done, he has managed to gradually turn the national media into something that looks like a giant propaganda outlet.
He has redrawn the electoral system to make it incredibly difficult to dislodge his own party from power. He's created a class of powerful business cronies who control a massive swathe of the country's economy. All of these things have made it more and more difficult year on year to even dream of a scenario where he isn't there anymore.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Until now. Is that all about to change?

KATY LEE:
As Dominic said, we've decided to spend the whole of this week's podcast looking at Hungary. If you are missing the cosy comfort of our usual format, good week, bad week, etc, etc, we are going to be rusting up a newsletter that takes that format this week. That'll be out tomorrow in your inboxes. You can subscribe by the link in the description of this episode if you're not signed up already. But for the rest of today, our full attention is on Hungary. Is this the beginning of the end of Orbán's seemingly unstoppable rule of Hungary? Who is this Péter Magyar guy? What might Hungary look like if he wins? And how might its place in Europe change?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
We're going to be trying to answer those questions with the help of a couple of our favourite people to speak to about Hungary. They've both been on the show before. One of them is a veteran journalist, the other an incredibly thoughtful novelist. And that's where we're starting this week with the Hungarian author, Krisztián Marton. You might remember that we spoke to Krisztián last summer, just after Budapest's historic Pride March. That march was momentous, banned by Orbán's government, yet hundreds of thousands took to the streets in defiance.
And I think for many Hungarians, it felt like not only a celebration of queer identity, but also the first sparks of hope that there could be change coming. It was a general march of protest against Orbán and his rule. And so we wanted to check in with Krisztián again, about nine months later, to see whether that feeling of optimism at that march has sustained itself.
And to hear what it feels like to be a voter waiting for this possible huge political change. We spoke to Christian from Budapest on Monday this week.

[MUSIC]

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Krisztian, thank you so much for joining us again. Great to have you back on the show.

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
Thank you so much for having me again.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
So the big election is now only a few weeks away. What's the mood like among your circle of friends right now?

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
It's such a mixed bag, because on one hand, there's this immense hope that this will finally happen, that the regime will change. But on the other hand, I don't know, there's this looming fear that this still won't be enough. Even though this is going really strong, it's leading the polls.
Who knows? This limbo is very prevalent in every corner of our lives. Like so many people, or actually, even whole industries are just sitting things out, kind of. Personally, I delayed buying an apartment because I'm not sure if I want to stay. So it's hopeful, but there's always this, what if it's still not enough?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
And is that a different feeling to how it's felt at previous elections?

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
Oh, yeah, definitely. Because for the first time, we actually have a chance. During previous elections, it was just a fever dream, like we didn't have a real shot.

KATY LEE:
And are your friends who are planning to vote for Tisza actively excited to vote for Tisza? Or is it more kind of like, okay, this is like an okay option, but not one that we're super excited about?

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
I mean, it really varies from person to person. So there are groups who are very excited, and they do believe that this will be our saviour. There are people who are more sceptical or fearful or doubtful. It is a compromise, but not such a bad one.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
I mean, Peter Magyar has stayed relatively quiet on LGBTQ issues, like presumably in a bid to avoid alienating conservative voters, whilst also attracting some progressive ones. He kind of opposed Orbán's Pride ban, for example, but not especially explicitly. How hopeful are you that Hungary under Meijer would be a less homophobic place?

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
I mean, I think they will definitely be less homophobic and won't weaponise homophobia and won't target the community. But I also fear that they won't make actual efforts to repair the damage that the Orbán regime caused. And I think that this will be a topic that they will continuously avoid or ignore. Because I understand that in order to gain this mass following, they had to stay away from controversial and dividing topics. And sadly, LGBTQ issues are among them in Hungary. But I feel like this will be like a prolonged excuse for them to just ignore it. I don't see them erasing any of the discrimination laws anytime soon. I think when the EU eventually overturns them, they will be like, yeah, we're executing it. Because it's not like even if they win, it's not like Fidesz and their propaganda is just suddenly going to disappear. If anything, they will be just louder because now they don't have to govern. They can just focus on disrupting and poisoning any discourse. So I don't know.

KATY LEE:
But last time we spoke to you, you suggested that Orbán uses anti-queer rhetoric primarily as a form of creating noise, right, of distracting from reality, which is that the Hungarian economy isn't a total mess. Basic services like healthcare and education just don't function the way they should. To what extent do you think he has succeeded in continuing to use homophobia as a distraction from all of that? And to what extent do you think it has stopped working?

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
I mean, it's actually funny because he dropped it completely after last year's Pride. So for a few days or weeks, he tried to spin it like, oh, this was his master plan all along to have this massive attendance to show society what he wants to save them from. But it didn't work. Nobody was buying it. And they just slowly, like silently faded this technique. They just dropped it completely. And what they're doing now instead is, again, scaring people with boring Ukraine, being very hateful towards Ukraine. They started a war on drugs in the dumbest way possible because there's no prevention. It's just police showing up, doing massive raids in clubs and closing down clubs, arresting young people, and even doing house raids at celebrities' homes who are openly supporting the opposition or criticising the current government. So the homophobic rhetoric is just pretty much gone.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Can you describe some of the everyday frustrations that have left so many Hungarians desperate for a change in government?

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
Yeah. So healthcare is one of them. It has basically collapsed. There are these huge waiting lists, like there's not enough staff to care for people. Then the housing crisis is becoming really bad. The current government started this programme last year, which on the surface aims to help first homeowners, but the wording of the law and the loopholes actually make it almost impossible for a first homeowner to take advantage.And inflation, of course, these are happening everywhere. I think the biggest thing is that there are all these scandals of incomprehensible amounts of money being stolen from the national treasury or bank, and they don't do anything about it. Or child abuse cases, which are so frequent these days, and they don't do anything about it, but they would arrest young people for smoking pot.

KATY LEE:
Get your priorities in order.

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
Yeah.

KATY LEE:
This feels like a cruel question, but how do you think you will feel if Orbán wins again?

KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
You know, I was 20 when they first won, and I'm 36 now. And so there has been quite a few elections. And, you know, we're kind of getting used to them staying. I guess it would just feel like the final nail in the coffin for our country or for having a more democratic future. I don't know. I don't know.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
You said that you've put off buying a home until after the election. Does that mean you're considering leaving the country? Is that something you're seriously thinking about?
KRISZTIÁN MARTON:
Not sure, to be honest, because I decided to buy a home because, I don't know, last year's events were so hopeful. And I felt like, okay, this society can still come together and ignite change. And this is my home. I grew up here. I love the country. I love the language. I love the people. And frankly, I don't see many other options that are so attractive. I mean, so this whole extreme right-wing politics are sweeping across the globe. So where would I go? When I made an offer and I actually, I was kind of relieved when they just ignored it because I was like, maybe the hope of the regime changing, just clouding my judgement and what if they stay? Then maybe I will be very depressed or apathetic and don't want to stay. So my brain says sometimes that, you know, like if they stay, then the smart thing to do is to leave. But then my heart is with this country.

[MUSIC]

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Listening to Krisztián talk, it's so clear that he feels like he's in a state of limbo right now. Something that I imagine a lot of Hungarians are feeling. And the stakes, as he describes them, are just so high for Hungary and for Hungarians. Well, and I guess you could argue for the EU as a whole, too.

KATY LEE:
Yeah. And at the same time, I can really see from the Hungarians that I speak to, just how much the hope of this moment is being tempered by fear that maybe not much is going to change.
And you know, not wanting to be too optimistic as a means of self-defence, of like protecting yourself from the disappointment of it now going wrong. It's such a complicated time to be Hungarian. Thank you so much to Krisztián for coming onto the show to tell us a little bit about what this moment feels like. His novel Crybaby was critically acclaimed. It was shortlisted for the Margó Prize for debut fiction. It's partly based on his own life and his experiences as a mixed race gay Hungarian man. And since it deals with LGBTQ experiences, it is banned from any bookshop within 200 metres of a church or a school, which maybe gives you an idea of the kind of environment that queer Hungarians have been facing. But you'll be happy to know that the novel is currently being translated into English. Once it's available, we will absolutely let you know on the show so that you could go ahead and buy it.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
We'll be speaking to our next guest in a moment. But first, a quick business chat.

KATY LEE:
Let's talk business.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Katy.

KATY LEE:
Dominic.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
It's truly a privilege and honestly, a bit surreal to sit here every week and create this podcast.
10 years ago, this was just a crazy idea, a pipe dream. And now as we approach our 10th anniversary, we've grown into something much bigger, a European podcast that at least seems to have become a trusted voice for so many listeners.

KATY LEE:
It's true.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
But here's the thing, as Wojciech reminded us just two weeks ago, we're not yet in a sustainable place, financially speaking. We're a non-profit. So we're not here to get rich. Far from it.

KATY LEE:
We're not? Speak for yourself.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Sorry to break it to you. But we do want to keep the lights on to keep producing episodes that matter and with that to keep strengthening the democratic fabric of this continent. Maybe that sounds a bit too grand, but you get the drift.

KATY LEE:
That's exactly what we're doing. Not too grand.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
So if you see value in what we do, please consider supporting us on Patreon. It's a win-win situation. You'll feel good knowing you're helping independent journalism thrive and we'll feel good knowing we can continue bringing you the stories and conversations from across Europe.

KATY LEE:
And also continuing to be employed.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
That too. From just four euros a month, you can make a real difference. And if you're able to give a bit more, from 12 euros a month, you get a personalised voice message from Katy and me. It's kind of like a teeny tiny personalised episode. You could even give it to a friend as a birthday present.

KATY LEE:
They make surprisingly good birthday presents. Slightly invasive birthday presents.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
It's true. Actually, I'm in the phase where everyone around me is turning 40, so I'm having to buy lots of birthday presents. Maybe I should just buy everyone Patreon subscriptions.

KATY LEE:
Sorry, you're going to send everyone a voice note as their 40th birthday present?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
With you.

KATY LEE:
Oh great. Rope me in, why don't you?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Anyway, why don't you take the plunge? Head to patreon.com/europeanspodcast and join our lovely community of supporters.

KATY LEE:
This week we have a lovely list of people to thank for joining us as supporters of the show. Martin, Johan,Sophie, Svetlozar, Sally, Charlotte, Angus, Stein, Koen, Wouter, Mathias, Audun, Go Brad Go, Stephanie, Jack, Guido and Lander. And thank you also to Katie, who is already supporting us but decided to increase her donations. That is incredibly kind. Thanks, Katie. And thank you everyone.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Thank you all so much.

[MUSIC]

KATY LEE:
Every time we talk about Hungary on this podcast, you just know, Dominic, that we reach for that one name on our WhatsApp in particular.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Viktória.

KATY LEE:
Viktória. If you've listened to the Europeans for a while, you might have heard Viktória Serdült's voice before. I think she's been on the show four times. And that includes her role in a mini-series that we made together about what it's like to be a journalist in a country where the media has effectively been turned into a giant pro-government propaganda system. Viktória is a correspondent for HVG magazine. It's kind of Hungary's version of The Economist. It's one of the last pillars of quality independent journalism that has managed to survive in Orbán's Hungary. And she's just someone who is extremely good at explaining the state of Hungarian politics to outsiders like Dominic and me, and even someone who manages to be funny while doing it.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
It's quite a talent. We gave her a ring in Budapest to talk about who this Peter Magyar guy is, how he's managed to get so much further than any other opposition politician in actually putting up a challenge to Orbán, and what might change if he actually wins.

KATY LEE:
Viktória, so great to have you back on the show.

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
It's always great to be back.

KATY LEE:
So you have been a journalist in Hungary for, I think, oh, about 20 years now?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
Unfortunately, it's more like 22.

KATY LEE:
What did Hungarian politics look like when you started covering it, and how is that different from what politics feels like today? You're laughing already.

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
Yes, I am, of course, because that's something that we were just discussing up in the editorial room, how different it was to be a journalist in, how should I put it, not making myself too old, but I started in 2004. And, of course, we as journalists had much more access to politicians back then. Of course, that was also a different government.
It was a left-wing government headed by Ferenc Gyurcsány, and even Fidesz, headed by Viktor Orbán, was trying to be more friendly with the press anyway. So we had access to meetings, we could call everybody up, even on a landline, which is something I always point out. Since 2010, when Fidesz first came into power with this supermajority they have had for the last 16 years already, they radically transformed basically the whole country, but that also includes the press and journalism and the media in general. So what we have today in Hungary as media and as independent media, which is quite important to distinguish, is a very restricted space under a lot of political, financial and every kind of pressure that you can imagine.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
We've not known you for 22 years, but we have known you now for quite a while, and we've seen your hopes and predictions for Hungary shift over the years. At the end of 2023, when we worked together on a story about media capture in Eastern Europe, you said it felt like game over for Hungary, like nothing could really change. And then Tisza and Magyar appeared on the scene. And a year later, you wrote this very hopeful piece for The Guardian that we've all read as a team and enjoyed. Where do we find you today? How are you feeling? How are your hopes and dreams?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
It's very difficult to talk about my hopes and dreams as a journalist, because as you know, as a journalist, I should be independent and free of any political will. But there is certainly a big change in Hungary. This campaign has been going on officially only since February, but basically, we've been in campaign season for the last one year or one and a half years, maybe. It's different because since 2010, this is the first time that we're having an opponent to Orbán, who is actually quite similar to Orbán in many respects. But still, there is a person that people who don't like the current government can follow and can look up to. And Péter Magyar, as you said, he sort of burst into the scene only two years ago. And even three months after his party was established, he reached like a fascinating percentage at the EP elections.
So that was already a sign that something was happening in Hungary. And people could channel their dissatisfaction into a political party. Before that, it was either Orbán or nothing.
There was no significant party who could represent all this dissatisfaction with Orbán. And what happened with the appearance of Péter Magyar is that people feel that there is a person, there is a voice that can be a true opponent to the current prime minister. And that's why so many people just started believing in what Péter Magyar is saying, or they don't like Péter Magyar, that happens a lot, but they just want Orbán out. So they're willing to vote for him.

KATY LEE:
Why has Magyar got so much further in actually managing to put up a viable challenge to Orbán than any other opposition politician over the past 16 years? Is it just a question of personal charisma? Is it something about the way that he's playing politics? Like, what is it that makes him different?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
That's an interesting question. I think all of that. First of all, he's very charismatic. He's young. He is sporty. He's stylish. Of course, this shouldn't matter in politics. But of course, it does when you want to attract voters. He attracts younger voters. It's very interesting that there was a poll which said that voters under 30 in Hungary, 80% of them would vote for Magyar, which is like sort of an unprecedented lead for Tisza. The other thing is that he is not afraid of Fidesz.
He's not playing the nice guy. He is not afraid to call Fidesz politicians out. He is very clear with what he wants to do. And of course, something that nobody has ever done before is he's touring the country. He has a lot of energy. He has this charisma, being able to talk to voters. And what he's doing right now, which is unprecedented in Hungarian politics, is that he is visiting at least four different villages and towns in Hungary a day. And of course, we mustn't forget it's not only about Magyar. It's also about dissatisfaction with the current Orbán government. The economy is really in ruins in Hungary, healthcare as well. Basically, we had the highest inflation in the EU after the COVID period. So what is added up? So people really have had enough of Orbán and his strategies are seemingly not working.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
But you mentioned that Magyar has some similarities to Orbán. They come from the same political movement. He was a member of Fidesz previously. What do we know about Magyar's ideology and what he would want to do if he became prime minister?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
Again, you pointed it out very well, like he comes from Fidesz. He was a member of the governing party. We shouldn't judge people by who they marry. But his ex-wife was the justice minister of Hungary. So he was really deeply embedded in the whole system. So he knows a lot of people who work in the government and his ideology is, I would describe him as a liberal conservative. So don't think of Magyar as some kind of liberal person or left-wing person. He is right-wing, he is conservative, but he's a different type of conservative than Fidesz is. What he wants to do later, the thing is that with this huge propaganda that we have in Hungary, Magyar is not really willing to play all his cards and tell what he is willing to do after he wins the elections.
He's mostly concentrating on domestic politics. And this is also a strategy as Orbán is trying to distinguish himself as this big European leader who is for peace, who is going to protect the whole of the European Union. Magyar is more cautious about international affairs, but he is really concentrating on domestic politics. He promises that there will be better hospitals, healthcare will be sort of more efficient. He also says that maybe trains will be working, or everyday life will be easier, inflation will be lower. So this is something that really grabs the attention of everyday Hungarians.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
I think some people listening who don't know much about Hungarian politics might be surprised to hear you say that Orbán is presenting himself as a leader who's fighting for peace in Europe. Because I mean, the way he's seen in much of the EU is as the person who is blocking this loan at the moment to Ukraine, and as a pal of Putin. How does he get away with claiming that he's the peace guy?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
In Hungary?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Yeah.

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
I mean, like you see the polls, actually, he doesn't. I don't think the majority of Hungarians believe what he's saying. There is a huge anti-Ukraine campaign in Hungary, like the campaign of the government is totally against Ukraine. If you're walking around the streets of Budapest, you will even think that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is running in the elections, because you can see him on every poster around. And this is something the Hungarian government is keen on following. Because what the Hungarian government is doing is that they're doing their own inside polls, basically every weekend, just like measuring whether these campaign messages are working or not. And if there is a campaign message that has been around for long, that means that that specific message, in this case, Ukraine is working within their own electorate. So that's why they are continuing with this. But I think this is also very important to mention that Magyar himself, I said earlier that he's not willing to comment on the international scene.
But that is not true in the case of the war and the Russian aggression against Ukraine. Because Magyar also says that Hungary will stay the country of peace. We are not sending anyone to Ukraine, which is something that the Hungarian government is trying to convince people that this is going to happen if Tisza wins. And also –

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
It’s scaremongering.

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
It is. And Tisza says that they will probably not support Ukraine's fast EU accession as well.
So there you have your similarity between Fidesz and Tisza.

KATY LEE:
So is it a kind of wrong assumption on behalf of a lot of people watching this from elsewhere in Europe, that if Magyar wins this election, Hungary will take a less anti-Ukrainian, more pro-European direction?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
No, I don't think that's a wrong assumption, because Magyar has said it many times that he's going to be a pro-European guy. But he also wants to protect the sovereign Hungary.
That is something that Orbán is very keen on emphasising. So I think he will stand on this middle ground. Magyar is promising that he's going to be a better European ally.
But at the same time, he will certainly not support every decision that he was making.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
One of the big stories of the campaign, or at least the big stories that made it over here in the Netherlands that I read about was that Magyar a few weeks ago announced publicly that a sex tape had been recorded of him as part of a dirty tricks campaign. It appeared to have been recorded with spyware showing him with his girlfriend at the time. The sex tape has yet to materialise. But is it possible that by getting ahead of this and announcing that there was this possible smear campaign against him, it's actually helped him out?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
It is fascinating to hear that that is some story that even reached the Netherlands. Because of course, in Hungary, it was a big story. And as journalists, we're like basically pushing F5 on the computer all the time, seeing whether this sex tape is appearing or not. I think this sort of says something about Magyar and this whole dirty campaign that Fidesz is doing, because this is not the only thing they're doing. They're trying to discredit Magyar in any way possible.
But Magyar is basically like Teflon. Nothing sticks on him. And this sex tape is a very good example of that. Because everybody was expecting a sex tape or some kind of tape like this for the past years, because the rumour has been circulating that there is something that Fidesz has about Magyar and that's going to be probably a sex tape with someone. We had no idea with whom. Everybody said that, OK, this is the atomic bomb that Fidesz promised to have, but Magyar sort of like finds the solution to everything. And yes, by stating that, yes, he was in an intimate relationship with his ex-girlfriend and he recognised the room and he admitted that there is probably a sex tape – I don't know, it sort of disappeared and we haven't heard of the tape since then.

KATY LEE:
Intriguing. Yet.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Yet.

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
Yet. We still have three weeks, so you never know.

KATY LEE:
That atomic bomb could still be dropped in the middle of this campaign. Whoever wins, what do you think will be the most urgent issues the new government will have to sort out?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
It's probably the economy and inflation and prices, because that is something that's affecting a lot of people. What is also important to mention is that Fidesz itself is not only a party, it's a whole system. In the past 16 years, they spent a lot of energy on capturing the whole state.
And it's not only the media, it's the constitutional court, the high court, even the media council. Modifying of all these laws requires a super majority in Hungary.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
And a super majority is two-thirds, right?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
Two-thirds, exactly. If Tisza doesn't have a two-thirds majority in parliament, that means that they probably cannot modify the laws that are needed to modify the system. And the scenario can be very similar to that of Poland. When you have a constitutional crisis, and in that case, I think they're going to have a very difficult time governing.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Do you think Magyar would be willing as prime minister to reinstate limits on his own power in order to strengthen Hungarian democracy again?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
That would be a guess for Paul the Octopus, probably. I can't really tell.

KATY LEE:
I haven't thought about Paul the Octopus for such a long time. What a joy to hear his name.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Do you think everyone will know who Paul the Octopus is?

KATY LEE:
Younger listeners, you need to look this up on Wikipedia. You won't even know what it is.

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
But I don't know. Actually, as I said, his programme is up on the internet, and depending on the outcome of the election, it can change anytime.

KATY LEE:
We've talked about how the remaking of the media system is one of the things that has really transformed Hungary since you became a journalist and since Orbán became prime minister 16 years ago. This super majority does seem like a really crucial thing for trying to rebuild Hungarian democracy again. If that is the case, if they do have a super majority and there is leeway to change things, do you see a path to how a new government can make the media freer again? Would they have any powers that could actually be used to make the media a noisier and more critical place?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
Again, a very good question. I think the key would be the public media service, because in Hungary, public media is something that is watched by millions of Hungarians, mainly in the countryside. And since public media is totally under control of the government, it is for anyone outside of Hungary, it's very hard to imagine how propagandistic it is. I mean, like there's basically no opposition politicians that can go to public media and state their opinion on anything. And they are running ads. Let me give you an example. We have a very small radio station that is playing nonstop retro music. And this is something that my mom is listening to every day. And that is just like an innocent little radio station. But even there, you have this news bulletin that is provided by public media. Every half an hour, you can hear a bulletin saying that Zelensky is working against Hungary. So if that happens in small retro music radio, just imagine what is happening at the big public service media. So I think the most important part would be reorganising public media. It will be a difficult task, because that would require a complete overhaul of the whole system and also modifying the media law, which again, some of that needs supermajority. But I think if they start with public media, then the rest of Hungarian media would just like sort of reorganise themselves. Because we have a very healthy system of independent media in a very small circle, like HVG or Telex or 24.hu. These are independent media. We are working under intense pressure, but we are here and we are surviving in some way. But if that financial pressure, if the political pressure is lifted, then I think there is a chance that this media environment that we have is not going to change as it should, but it will like slowly and definitely start to be a healthier state, media state.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Let's hope that if he gets into power, Magyar can learn from some of the mistakes that Donald Tusk's government made in trying to unpick the state capture of the Polish state media. One other thing I wanted to ask you about is that we've seen some pretty messy post-election periods in various countries around the world lately. Do you feel confident that whoever wins this election, the loser will accept their defeat and step aside gracefully? Or is this another question for Paul the Octopus to answer?

VIKTÓRIA SERDÜLT:
That would be easier to ask him. But if you ask me, it really depends on the outcome, the actual outcome of the elections. If there is a clear majority, I think Fidesz would accept that it lost the elections.But if there's just a very small margin, like remembering the mayoral election of Budapest a few years ago, when the present mayor won by 200 votes, which is like nothing. If something like that happened, I think it would be possible that some people would challenge whether Tisza won the elections or Orbán won the elections. We are preparing for all kinds of scenarios, and it will be very interesting to see what's going to happen on the 13th of April.

[MUSIC]

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Well, Paul the Octopus is dead, but who needs Paul the Octopus when you have Victoria, the journalist to talk to? What a sentence. As Paul isn't around to predict political outcomes, we don't know what's going to happen on April the 12th. But after speaking to Christian and Victoria, I do feel like I have somewhat of a better idea of what the range of possibilities are and also what is at stake.

KATY LEE:
Absolutely. I mean, I can imagine there are a lot of people who are really not very excited about Mariar as a alternative to Orbán. But the fact that there is any alternative at all, like even that was almost unthinkable just a few years ago. Is April going to be the month in which this 16 year takeover of the Hungarian state by Orbán starts to be reversed? Unclear. I mean, the polls are looking good for Tisza and for Mariar with this pretty stable looking nine-ish point lead in the polling average.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Yeah, but there is a lot of uncertainty because of the Hungarian voting system. Some MPs are elected via a kind of first-past-the-post constituency system, like in the UK if UK listeners, but another portion of the MPs are elected via a more proportional representation party list. So, that makes things even more complicated and harder to predict.

KATY LEE:
Yeah, here I was thinking that the Paris electoral system was complicated. This is what unpredictable looks like. Anyway, you know where to find us late on the night of April 12th. Glued to our phones, on tenterhooks to see what lies ahead for Hungary.

[MUSIC]
DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Now, it's a special Hungarian episode, so we thought why not make it a special Hungarian edition of our culture recommendation segment as well, the Inspiration Station. What Hungarian delights have you got to recommend to us today, Katy?
KATY LEE:
I fell down a bit of an internet rabbit hole while preparing for this episode, and I ended up doing quite a lot of the research with Elefánt on in the background. Do you know Elefánt?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
I do not.
KATY LEE:
They're like an alternative rock band. It kind of sounds like the indie music that you might have grown up with in your country if you were a teenager in the noughties like me. They're just a good band, and there's one song in particular from 2015 which is kind of a political anthem and feels like an appropriate recommendation for the moment that we're in right now.
It is called Tizenhat, and the lyrics are about a failed self-appointed messiah. It is widely interpreted as being about a high-profile political figure, even if they're not named. I wonder who it could be?

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Can't guess. No ideas.

KATY LEE:
So that's my recommendation for today, Tizenhat by Elefánt.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
I like that you described them as just a good band.

KATY LEE:
Just a good band.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
It's kind of like damning with faint praise.

KATY LEE:
Put that on your album cover. What about you? What Hungarian delights have you been enjoying?

DOMINIC KRAEMER: Well, before I say any more, I can't believe we've got this far into the episode without mentioning that Peter Magyar's surname means Hungarian.

KATY LEE:
It does.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
In Hungarian.
KATY LEE:
That is, what's that called? Nominative determinism, isn't it? With like, you do the job…

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
That is what it's called. It would be like you being called Katy French and running for president of France, which – maybe you should do that.
KATY LEE:
Maybe I should.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
I'd vote for you.

KATY LEE:
Thanks.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
I'm not allowed to. Anyway, sorry, I got distracted. I have two Hungarian recommendations. They're not as fun as your one, I'm sorry, but they are both really worth investing time in. The first one comes from our producer, Wojciech. Actually, he wanted us to recommend an impressive film looking back on 16 years of Orbán's rule from one of the few remaining independent Hungarian media outlets that's not HVG, where Viktória works. It's Direkt36. The film is called The Trap and he says it doesn't focus too much on the biggest, splashiest scandals you might have heard about internationally. Instead, it digs into the long term effects of Fidesz's populist, often short-termist policies. Experts and people on the ground share their experiences showing the gradual decay of public services such as education, public transport and healthcare. Wojciech says that it gave him a real sense of the growing gap between those in power and ordinary Hungarians. It's a deep dive if you're coming at it from outside of Hungary, but it's absolutely worth watching if you want to understand why so many Hungarians are ready to turn the page on this chapter of their history.

KATY LEE:
Sounds great.
DOMINIC KRAEMER:
The film is in Hungarian, but it's available on YouTube with English subtitles. It came out about a month ago and has already had almost 1.5 million views.
KATY LEE:
Wow.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
Maybe that's a sign of just quite how many people are interested in learning about what's gone wrong under Orbán. The other thing I wanted to recommend is on the same subject, but in written form.The Financial Times has been running a really excellent series on corruption in Hungary over the past few weeks.

KATY LEE:
It’s great.

DOMINIC KRAEMER:
The series is called The Orbán System and there's a piece on how a group of oligarchs close to Orbán have reaped billions from receiving public contracts during Orbán's rule. And there's another piece looking into his family's own wealth and properties. His father now apparently owns a former Habsburg estate in their hometown. It's a really fascinating piece of journalism.
We'll link to that series in the FT and the other things that we've recommended today in the show notes to this episode.

[MUSIC]
KATY LEE:
That is all we've got time for this week. Don't forget to check out our YouTube account, our Instagram account, our Mastodon account, and our Bluesky account. There are enough accounts there to tide you over until our next episode. And don't forget to subscribe to our newsletter. It is called Good Week, Bad Week and you can find it on Substack.
DOMINIC KRAEMER:
This week's episode was produced by Katz Laszlo, Morgan Childs and Wojciech Oleksiak using the European-made audio software of Hindenburg Pro. Thank you everyone for listening. We'll see you next week.
KATY LEE:
Viszlát!